Filling In The Blanks
From the latest Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor in partnership with STV News:
'The poll shows a small lead for Yes. Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum.
Support for Scottish independence
If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Coincidentally, we raised a poll via Twitter on Sunday. It ends later this evening but the breakdown is unlikely to fluctuate by much:
Very basic question, but worth revisiting from time to time, and it's open to everyone.
Do you believe that Scotland will ever regain its independence?
743 votes·6 hours left
10:30 PM · Nov 26, 2023
An obvious question arises and spawns many others - if the vote for Yes continues to remain relatively stable at on or around 50% (in the event of a hypothetical vote 'tomorrow') and general feeling that independence is inevitable (whether the voter 'supports' independence or not) rises as high as 80%, what accounts for the 30% disparity?
Our next poll is going to ask whether or not the SNP is now 'the only vehicle to independence'.
We are not great at predictions (e.g. we believed that the 2014 referendum would return a Yes vote in the low-60%) and that's why we do these polls.
As stated repeatedly, we are not professional pollsters but we enjoy posing these questions and it is clear from the reaction to them (generally speaking!) that our readers and Twitter/X followers are keen to respond.
So, we want to hear from readers, both here and on 'X' - what do you think will be the response to this question:
'Do you feel that the SNP is 'the only vehicle to independence?'
We look forward to reporting back with results this coming weekend, and while we stop short of committing any prediction to print, we're pretty sure they'll give the SNP much more cause for concern than IPSO's headline about the party's 'double-digit' lead.